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Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Wed Aug 21, 2024 12:41 am
by Sharky
Well I'm playing on permadeath(1life), and using sword/shield build with dagger of shadow priest ( other than the wasted mf points I can solo almost everything ,still need like 30 more ar/br for the debuffs, so getting another ring is equal to 4/5 lvls on stats.. I messed up starting as permadeath as 1st gameplay.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2024 11:10 am
by Eoril
Anyway i dont believe in the 0,01% rate.
Maybe it's 0,01% when the mobs really gives a loot with objects in it
There's no bug there. You are just very unlucky
It's not just "very unlycky" it is above all very very improbable
or - said differently - as probable as getting the ring with just one kill

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2024 11:19 am
by Antison
Eoril wrote: Thu Aug 22, 2024 11:10 am Anyway i dont believe in the 0,01% rate.
Maybe it's 0,01% when the mobs really gives a loot with objects in it
There's no bug there. You are just very unlucky
It's not just "very unlycky" it is above all very very improbable
or - said differently - as probable as getting the ring with just one kill
Listen, I understand that you're frustrated that it took so long and you're looking for something to blame, but it's not the code. There is no bug here. This code has been like this for over 12 years and has not been touched in all of that time.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2024 11:27 am
by Eoril
It's just stats, mathematics.
1 ring with 46k tries with MF3 it's not "unlucky" it's just improbable (like said above : same chance than drop the ring with the first kill)

For all the people who drop the ring after 30K+ tries (with MFX), we should have that many people who drop the ring in the first room.
It's not a question of frustration, but of Bernouilli's binomial distribution

In science the universal threshold for statistical significance is set at 5%. Here we have far too many examples way below the threshold, and almost none which would be beyond 99.9% or even 99% success.

but that's just my opinion

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2024 11:39 am
by Antison
In all my years of playing this game I have, I think about 13 of these rings over 19 characters. Something like that.
And I do not believe that I have a single character that's had to kill more than 10,000 of them. I even have characters that have two each.
I use the clear and reload method so my statistics are just wild ass guesses as it usually takes me somewhere between 3 to 5 hours to get a ring doing it that way. Maybe a little bit longer

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2024 3:32 pm
by Canuck
To simplify things, people could think of it this way.

1. Before you start, the odds of flipping a coin heads 20 times in a row are just over 1 in a million.

2. The odds of flipping heads the twentieth time are still 1 in 2.

Every time you do a kill, you have the same chances of a drop; the game doesn't "remember" how many times you tried before.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2024 3:40 pm
by Eoril
Good reminder, but that's not the question here.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2024 3:46 pm
by Antison
What is the question then because I already told you that there is no bug in the drop rate logic nor the magic finder logic.
That code is well tested and has stood the test of time

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2024 3:59 pm
by Eoril
There's no question if you don't want there to be. I simply said that I don't believe in the drop rate. I didn't use any verb other than "believe".
And I still don't believe it. There are, according to my observations (with bias: perhaps people who are lucky never express themselves) far too many cases in the extremes of "bad luck" than there are in the extremes of "luck".
The binomial distribution does not allow me to have another opinion. But like I said, that's just my opinion.
If you are confident in the code, great.

Re: Extraordinary and legendary items

Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2024 4:39 pm
by Nut
I am glad that so many players have bad luck with the RoLS, because then there's more luck left for me :geek: