RoLS estimate?

[rijackson741]

You will have to forgive me if I am wrong, but I think you misunderstand how it works. You would not be the first to have this misunderstanding.

You seem to be under the impression that the more kills you have the higher the chance that the next kill will yield the ring. That is not correct. With no levels of MF the chance that you will get the ring is always 1 in 10,000, no matter how many kills you have. If you get one level of MF, then from that point on it is 1 in 6666. More levels of MF increase your chances further, but nothing you have done in the past makes any difference to what those chances are.

[Zukero]

Yup, you may have killed eleventy bazillion of them, you still only have about 60% chance of getting one within the next 10,000 kills.

[sdevaney]

I like to look at it like tossing a coin. Tossing a fair coin is an example of probability distribution that is memoryless. Every time you toss the coin, you have a 50 percent chance of it coming up heads. It doesn’t matter whether or not the last five times you threw the coin it came up consistently tails.

[Zukero]

Except this coin is a die with 10, 000 faces and 9,999 of them mean you lost.

[Dnadnnoid]

I spent some time in that dungeon lately after playing for years i finally decided to actually try and find that ring.

Ive killed 1103 masters and 1076 trainers so far and no ring yet. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

[Fecund_mint]

Your current kills have no effect on the chances in the future.

If I increased my Magical Finder skill during my RoLS grind, as a result of upgrading, did it reset my chances of getting the ring or did it just increase it even more?

I'm not entirely sure what you mean, but your chances of getting the ring are 'reset' each kill. You're no more likely to get the ring on your 100,000th kill than on your 1st. The magic finder skill now just makes it so that on each kill, you have a 0.015% chance instead of a 0.01% chance (assuming you go from level 0 to level 1 in the skill). Getting the skill in the middle of grinding won't affect any of the kills you got in the past.

[Imprimere]

You will have to forgive me if I am wrong, but I think you misunderstand how it works. You would not be the first to have this misunderstanding.

You seem to be under the impression that the more kills you have the higher the chance that the next kill will yield the ring. That is not correct. With no levels of MF the chance that you will get the ring is always 1 in 10,000, no matter how many kills you have. If you get one level of MF, then from that point on it is 1 in 6666. More levels of MF increase your chances further, but nothing you have done in the past makes any difference to what those chances are.

Actually, you're confusing odds and probability. The odds will remain 1 in 10,000, but as the sample size approaches infinity, the probability approaches 1.

Let's look at a coin flip. The odds of flipping heads is always 1/2. However, the probability of flipping heads 3 times in a row is 1/8.

So, while the odds of drawing a RoLS (with no MF) remain 1/10,000, the probability of drawing one increases with the number of kills.

All of that said, will only certain mobs drop this ring?

[Antison]

Yes, only the gargoyle masters and trainers drop them.

[Lam al Adie]

Let's look at a coin flip. The odds of flipping heads is always 1/2. However, the probability of flipping heads 3 times in a row is 1/8.

So, while the odds of drawing a RoLS (with no MF) remain 1/10,000, the probability of drawing one increases with the number of kills.

The probability of getting no ring is 9999 in 10000 tries. The chance of getting no ring decreases slowly with the number of tries, but always remains higher than 0.

Your chance of still not having gained a ring after 50000 kills is ~0.677%. So out of 10000 players each killing 50000 mobs you may expect 6 or 7 not to get a ring. The others may have gotten even more than one ring.

The calculus is 0.9999^(num of kills). No matter how many kills you have, you'll never reach a number where your next kill will guarantee you the ring. It just make you that poor li'l kit that by some freaky coincidence still doesn't have that ring in it's pocket(ses, my precioussss)

[Imprimere]

Yes, only the gargoyle masters and trainers drop them.

Thank you! And I did find the mob drops as related to extraordinary and legendary items elsewhere on the forum. Nice info here!